All technologies produce winners and losers in the short term anyway PFT
600 million TVs throughout the world- greatly influenced the world towards capitalism in the last 20 years
3 times as many nation states now as 70 years ago ( 70 then to 210 now)
In some manufacturing areas labour costs are only 5-10% of the total cost.
At GM labour costs are 25% of price of car,Toyota and Ford 18% and falling towards 10%
Howard Study : Democracy not correlated with rising incomes but as incomes rise democracy is demanded
Blue collar workers now only 20% , Farmers 5% . Percentages 40% in 30s, 50% at turn of century respectively (TNR) in US
9 in 10 people currently work for organisations and the higher the education the more likely they will work for an organisation.
2% of semiconductor costs are materials/energy, 10% of fibre optics cost
TWN : Those who solve, identify and broker new problems will succed 20th Century ; by 1950 high proportions went to workers and middle managers but now out sourcing, and mobile factories Routine producers can be got for £1700 pa in the Philipines ( only 25% of US jobs) US: non-unionised wages fell, unionised- job losses ( as in Europe) Growth in in-person servers: - simple, repetitive, closely supervised, no education needed: waitress, retail, hotel, cashier, nursing home,cleaner, taxi, secret, mechanic, security.(30% of US labour force) ( some replaced by ATMs, car washes , vending machines,self service petrol) The third group symbolic analysts (20% of jobs, (8% in 1950)) are growing selling knowledge or its results ( mid century value of what was conceptual was dwarfed by value of large scale production). They are always experimenting. Vast pool of background knowledge learnt by being there- Silicon valley, wall street, Semi conductor:Origen, Irvine for automobiles. Creativity booms when its near other creative people. SAs go to a lot of conferrences , give talks ,etc Other jobs mostly primary industries and government employees From a peak of nearly 10% in 1965, the average net after tax profit of US largest non-financial corporations declined in 70s , up 82-85 and down, now 5.3% in 1990 After tax income of largest companies CEOs earned 12 times that of his average worker , now before tax 93 times.( if taxes are high , quality individuals just move overseas) 50s growth brought share of top 5% to 18% ( vs 34% today ) The standard of living in US ( and elsewhere) not related to the success of the nations corporation ( which may take their profits elsewhere) but to the global demand for their skills and insights. Biggest profits are now in specialised uses: high temperatures, galvanised steel, iron powder, high temp plastics, - the demand for customised products means having an indepth knowledge about customers and their busines.. Empowerment: Finish logging company sold their chain saws to workers and contracted them. Machines no longer in need of repair. US big companies have produced no new jobs 1975- 1990 Globalism: of a Pontiac car $20,000- $6000 to South Korea for routine labour/assembly, $3500 to Japan for advanced components( engines,electronics), $1500 to Germany (styling,design), $800 to Taiwan, Sing,Jap for small components, £500 to UK for advertising, marketing, $100 to Ireland and Barbados for data processing: the other $8000 to stategists, lawers ,lobbyists etc in America.. Its irrelevant what a countries companies are doing , its what the citizens are doing. Half of all imports/ exports are within Global companies (trade stats miss them out ( I think)) Japan buying up America , yes , but Britain and France each bought more and meanwhile the US was buying the rest of the world. Globalisation. TWN p117+ When GM hired Toyota to run its plant in 84, productivity rose 50% , absenteeism fell 25% to 4% Earnings for the uneducated fell by about 12% in real terms 1973 to 1987 ( not a big fall ).TWN Mid century Global commerce much smaller than now. In the US imports are 22% of GNP ( only 6% in 1960) TV has westernized the rest of the world Its difficult to keep technology secret - reverse engineering Demand for good increased in ASEAN as people started to see them as being within easy reach. Globalisation started in last 10 years Many US companies earn more than 50% out of the US In 1913 60% of US taxes came from property ( now only 10%) Japan has a top rate of tax of 60% Internet will also make it easier to avoid tax Tories got 30.7% of vote , 17.5% in Scotland 85% of mortgages are variable rate in UK, 50% in Germ, 10% in France, so impact of changes in interest rates after 2 years is 4 times the EU average Manufacturing share of GDP falling because prductivity growing faster in manu than in services effect of third world manufacturing neglible Agricultural productivity grew faster than manuf in the last century: 50% of jobs in 1860 now 3% Black economy 1/7th of rich world economies- 25% Italythen Spain, etc down to 12% UK and 7% swiss (bottom), shadow economy growing by 3 times as much as other Average household spends 20-40% of its income on housing in Europe, 2-3% in Russia. Mass production is already an outmoded form: De-massified production-short runs of highly customized products- the cutting edge of manufacture. Trends from War and Anti War - Toffler The right knowledge tnputs can reduce labour requirements, cut inventory, save energy,and reduce the time, space, and money needed for production. Thus capital itself is now increasingly based on intangibles. Work units shrink.Ecomies of speed replace economies of scale. Values are inculcated more by visual media than by church or family ; Lester Thurow :FofC Nomadic bedoin tribesmen complete with camels have sattlelite TV and watch what we watch. American soaps helped to change the world to capitalism, they no longer believed their leaders Elderly : in the 70s % of those in poverty was higher than average, now lower Av elderly net worth is $222,000 versus $66,000 for 35-44 yr olds When Bismark set the retirement age at 65 , the av German lived to be 45 ! At retirement 16 mil Americans have no voluntary savings No one wants to loose benefits but everyone wants less taxes so they must be matched Globalisation: For first time in history anything can be made anywhere and sold everywhere Uruguy round- tariffs average down to 3 from 4.7 Movies are US biggest export by value World Bank IMF no longer really needed now be have global capital markets In a normal day world capital market move $1.3 trillion, but world exports are only $3 trillion PER YEAR. Imports have grown mostly between first world countries- 76% in 1990 , 38% in 1950 ( % of imports coming from other rich nations) "Periods of uncertainty always see a rise in religious fundamentalism" FOFC In OECD savings halved 15% to 7% (70s to 90s) more than half due to less saving by government, rest due to inc in elderly and consumer credit. In China , theres no consumer credit Credit cards have replaced saving for a rainy day Lowering taxes by Reagan didn't increase savings The least successful nations change most quickly. Franchising gone from 9% to 18% of GDP ( 9 out of 10 succeed versus 1 in 3 other businesses) OECD av corp tax standard rate has gone from 43% in 86 to 33% in 95 although some exemptions were abolished which is one reason yield dropped by less. Average top rate income tax 59 to 42 from 1975 -95 But for workers on 2/3 aver, aver and 2 x average marginal rates went up Taxes in EU 41% in 1980 45% now