31 in progress in 1990 alone Superpower rivalry did fuel some wars but defused others nothing," wrote H.G. Wells in 1914, "could have been more obvious to the people of the early twentieth century than the rapidity with which war was becoming impossible." 1928 Henry Ford announced that "people are becoming too intelligent ever to have another big war." " As in the past, the war-makers of the world do not merely calculate economic pluses and minuses before plunging into war. ...instead, their chances of seizing, expanding, or political power."p16 Worse yet, geo-economic war is not a substitute for military- conflict. It is, all too often, merely a prelude U.S.-Japanese economic rivalry leading up to the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor For only within recent decades have some of the key parameters of warfare hit their final limits these parameters are range, lethality, and speed. Iphicrates longer swords and spears, catapults and ballistas, crossbows, then long bows. Now any point on the globe can be targeted by ICBMs, subs, bombers, etc. A alpha chemical laser, capable of producing a million watts of power, as part of the development of an anti-missile system. He laser can, if targeted correctly, reach an enemy missile at the speed of light. Space has already transformed terrestrial military operations in terms of surveillance-, communications, navigation, meteorology, Groups fought to avenge killings, to abduct women, or for access to protein-rich game. Ancient Greek war was "a seasonal occupation, with the volunteer soldiers coming mainly from farms which needed no looking after during the winter months." At late as C17 senior commanders were expected to engage in hand to hand fighting. Industrialism meant standardization of armies, C19 brought orders by memo. In WW2 the industrial system rolled out thousands of guns, ships, planes. etc. Nazi theorists insisting that peace vas merely a period of war preparation the war between wars" the political to be subservient to the military- total war ED: The avoidance of war is one of the main motivations of a Christian country to mission and to including a theonomic dimension in the message Six day war in 73- Israel greatly outnumbered: 'he primary lesson, for Starry, was that "starting ratios" b not determine the outcome. "It makes no difference who outnumbered or who is outnumbering." Put differently, the fact that the Syrians had echelon after echelon of backup troops did them no good at all. Whoever seizes the initiative will win. So the building up of huge armies was not necessarily the key to victory Wars are seen on TV- Vietnam and Gulf War Iraq didn't realise there was no front now. Destroyed command and communication centers, knew what the enemy was doing without it knowing what you were doing. enemy formations and strengths are tracked and analyzed with computers, courses of action are war gamed with programs using artificial intelligence and logistics, and personnel information is compiled and tracked on computer spreadsheets." Earliest attacks targeted 'microwave relay towers, telephone exchanges, switching rooms, fiber optic nodes, and bridges that carried coaxial communications cables." This had the effect of either silencing them, or forcing "the Iraqi leadership to use backup systems vulnerable to eavesdropping that produced valuable intelligence.". Knowledge, in short, is now the central resource of destructivity, just as it is the central resource of productivity p82 In 1881, for example a British fleet fired 3,000 shells at Egyptian forts. Only ten ever hit.. today one F- 117, flying a single sortie and dropping one bomb, can accomplish what it took B~17 bombers 4,500 sorties and dropping 9,000 bombs to do in WW2 or 95 sorties and 190 bombs during Vietnam. Like Third Wave business, the military is loosening its rigid, top-down control. ED would need war companies perhaps with all this technology for hire anywhere in the world, for purposes of defense only Since in any given year approximately thirty wars of various sizes are raging on the planet. "When a war has ended on a large scale," Mosca wrote in 1939 in his book The Ruling Class, "will it not be revived on a small scale in quarrels between families, classes and villages?" Desert storms first attack was on Iraq's radar early warning system ''It was the first real test under war condition, the $200 billion US space machine and the first justification f the $1 bil French and British investment military space. ,coalition made direct use of some sixty allied satellites provided detailed images of Iraqi forces and the damage inflicted by allied air attacks., measured soil moisture revealing what parts of the desert could support tank movements. Niche warfare will become more because governments will find a relatively low-cost option-from perhaps by non-national players from transnational corporations covertly employing mercenaries to fanatic religious movements. Anti-missile defense systems will also refocus attention on anti-satellite weapons (ASATs) Satellite communications were "vulnerable to jamming, intercept, monitoring, and spoofing Its almost impossible to defends communications even on the ground, a computer hacker somewhere else can disable them without much equipment One way to cut down chopper casualties, for example, was to launch fleets of low-altitude robots the size and shape of model planes, each with a specialized sensor of a different type, each feeding data back to the field commander. -Pioneer RPVs robotic vehicles with no morals might . . . make ideal terrorists. Tomahawk cruise missile, which, once launched, no longer receives instructions, but is preprogrammed to behave independently. The problem with remotely controlled robotic weapons is that they depend on vulnerable communications that link humans to less bright, but nicely responsive mechanical extensions of themselves. Tested in a flight simulator, he software learned to land an FIA-18 safely on the heaving deck of an aircraft carrier 100 percent of the time. This same software was able to increase the plane's ability "to evade anti-aircraft missiles from 40 per cent of the time to 99 per cent." Today a new arms race may be about to dawn on the planet-a push for weapons that minimize, rather than maximise lethality. Nukes are too lethal to be useful except as a deterrent If an enemy tank can be rendered ineffective by taking out the engine or the gun mechanism through precision attacks then why not do this rather than killing everyone. Just like stunning a burglar with a sleep dart may be preferable to some people than killing him.
Laser Rifles can temporally blind, sonic low frequencies cause nausea etc. in crowds ( same as devices fitted to cars to deter deer) , areas can be sprayed with Teflon to put railways etc. out of action ( no friction), and polymers can be sprayed that glue things to the ground- to be confiscated later and sold to pay defenders costs, engines can be disabled by energy weapons, Would non-lethal weapons encourage the enemy to be bolder? ED what about applying the concepts of restitution to the international arena- why did the US not take Iraqi oil to pay for its expenses. Satellites watch the world at high resolution for signs of arms build up, etc. Knocking out radar sending viruses into computers, using missiles to destroy command and control sites, sending false signals to his equipment Why not send false commands to enemy infantry Information must be acquired, processed, distributed and protected Socialist command economies where free flow of ideas are constrained will by definition be at a disadvantage in being knowledge warriors- it won't flow ! Christian nations could lower costs by alliances with other Christian nations as time went on, especially when the sharing of equipment didn't leave the first country vulnerable if the second didn't step in. In Jan 91 the tomahawk cruises delivered a brand of electromagnetic pulse warhead that doesn't kill people but destroys electronic components ED The key thing is keeping ahead economically so you can afford all this stuff Data bases with plans or locations of spare parts or logistics, radar and weapon systems, or tapping telephone calls - all very vulnerable. America's wealth is more in the minds and attitudes of its people than in its buildings Viruses can be programmed to alter themselves unpredictably ( but and still work ED- over belief in evolution as a system that produces things that work) Need to keep lots of back up systems at a myriad of different locations (ED) which is very possible via the Internet and need to seal off many of them at any one time , to prevent viruses taking them all out, might even need a paper backup of the most important things As knowledge becomes more and more important in civilian life, people will find better and better ways to protect it. Hackers should be encouraged and then paid to show the military how to close the loop The Intelligence service used to cost America $30 billion =$300 per person per year It was very much a Second Wave organisation- centralised and bureaucratised Much intelligence is available to any foreign businessman or missionary or journalist. Militarily insignificant forces like the Serbs in Bosnia poses great problems Satellites saw Saddam amassing troops near the border but without spy's in Iraq's inner circles the US brushed it off as alarmist When does secrecy increase and when weaken security: knowledge known by everyone can be better used There is now far too much information- having everyone analysing it might be more strategic ( might create difficulties in a democracy) The real solution to terrorism in missionary work which undermines the ideology of the terrorists (ED) Managed news can damage or rally the enemy as much as physical attacks Although Saddam's government was secular, he played the Islamic card diplomatically while Bush played the UN card 29 million leaflets were dropped on Iraqi troops (33 different ones) telling them how to surrender, encouraging desertion, guaranteeing humane treatment of prisoners, warning of attacks Atrocity stories , true and false, are very effective The stakes are inflated- everything you hold dear is at stake- a new and better world order Saddam, not about not paying back the billions he owed to Kuwait but the future of the Arab World Polarisation- not with us are against us Divine Sanction - God bless America is Bush's speeches amazed the ordinary Arab accustomed to thinking of America as atheistic and materialistic. Discrediting enemy propaganda- pointing out Saddam had complete control of media in Iraq These are all Second Wave mass strategies Decentralised Internet and fax messages can stamp all that out Universal conscription was introduced by an embattled France in 1793 Trends: less conscription, air missile defense, precision, combined operation Guerrillas are a threat to commerce as much as to governments if they are communist types rather than free China has 3mil men (down from 4mil in 1980) and 3rd largest airforce in the world(4500 planes) Defense budgets are distributed by the way everything is , what areas will get the most votes. Each service will make a case for its budget not being cut, regardless of strategy Sometimes makers of war goods try to start wars- (Bloody Traffic- written in 1933) 300,000 defense jobs disappeared within 2 years of the Berlin wall coming down Commercial services by satellite give 5m accuracy (anyone can subscribe) Adding a navigation system to old missiles( e.g. Scuds) costs about $5000 The new warfare needs basically the same stuff as civilian companies need: satellites, computers, networks Air defense is the same technology as air traffic control, chemical detection can detect pollution, even night vision can lead to safety systems for automobiles Pattern recognition to distinguish aircraft at 6 miles has OCR applications 25,000 tactical nukes exists that decimate about one square km ED Nuclear weapons will in time get into the hands of terrorists and rogue regimes so the only defense is surely to develop something that stops them exploding, intercepts them or can de-radiate a place after they have been detonated. Non Proliferation treaties are surely a waste of time Satellites can only see the surface not underground warheads shielded in lead. Over 50 attempts to extort money from America by sometimes fairly credible threats of nuclear bombs have already been made. ( IRA, Basque, Menelin drug Cartel) Wherever government is weak there are private armies : Philippines, Somalia, Russia, Nuclear regulator Carl Builder expects in time for nuclear bombs to be available to individuals. Nuclear weapons could protect small countries (Japan) from big ones (China) In 1914 Germany and Britain were each others biggest trading partners (governments don't act in the interests of countries) Nation state is loosing its monopoly on violence ED we haven't stopped bloodshed within nations in the last 40 years- should the deterrent effect be to all , say Christians, wherever they are rather than those in our nation state We already have the arms and the warheads at the limit of their capability, the new developments are in making them still more accurate which is the same guidance research that will be making air traffic control more accurate, getting us more able to see what the enemy is doing which is the same research that is making it possible to predict the weather and see into a place for media purposes without being there ( or before you are there), and being able to process all that information which is the same for any data anywhere. ED Could stop a lot of wars by allowing any part of a state that wanted independence to get it. ED its myth that even if America was 100% Christian that it would have a responsibility to stop all wars from a compassionate point of view. Apart from being impossible this strategy ignores the fact that only through the gospel will wars cease. Private contract condottieri ( volunteers) would be easier to send into a war zone than the blue eyed boys of any nation. ( ED such have a vested interest in wars remember )- author wants them contracted to the UN. Perhaps they could be contracted to anybody who is acting in self defense but not those acting aggressively. Any mercenary joining a aggressive band like Saddam would be prosecuted for murder on return to his home country- chief judges could perhaps declare previous to a conflict which are OK.- this would be a good way to train soldiers. Could also fight for those rightfully rebelling against a tyrant. Peace corporations in a region- making money from the casualty rate dropping in a region. insurance funded ? You can stop a nation functioning by taking out its phones and computers more effectively now than by bombing it in the past. This is a technical issue but central- how to protect phones and computers A bounty of $1 million for anyone giving information of nuclear weapon smuggling would be more effective than the present inspectorate Weapons could be sold with hidden software instructions to self-destruct id used against the seller or outside a given area or on command from the seller.- who will trust them in the future Must provide an unregulated atmosphere in the home country where people can succeed so as to alleviate the temptation to go and work for the enemy Since Third Wave precision weaponry actually kills less people than second wave mass destruction it might even make sense to sell this weaponry to other countries in some senses The war is Bosnia was caused by ex-communists loosing power, switching from Marxism to religeo-tribalism as a justification and using about a year of TV to fuel the hate. Could and should the West have neutralised this propaganda- should ministries. - the BBC world service or Christian Broadcasters Could Christian ministries mount anti- propaganda campaigns round the world- offshore radio could even jam the main frequencies to give accurate news on the war- couldn't CNN do this. Theonomic messages could go out to countries via Radio A third of all the governments in the UN are now threatened with rebels, dissidents or governments in exile- especially tribes demanding independence ED give them it ! A quarter of world trade is between subsidiaries of the same firm Sometimes countries e.g. Argentina start wars for purely political reasons Between 1968 and 1990 the number of undernourished people has fallen by 16% ( WFO)