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Privatisation in Eastern Europe
Russia and Eastern Europe
Most command positions are European but half the population is Asian
Czechs once had Standard of living greater than France and Germany ( C19)
Transition to the Market Economy : critical perspectives on the world economy
As of mid 1994 most countries still have more than 50% of GDP in public sector.
In private sector : Czech 65, Russia 50, Slovak 55, Slovenia 30, Ukraine 30, Armenia 40, Albania 50, Belarus 15, Estonia 55, Georgia 20, Ukraine 30
Free distribution of shares does nothing to transform the firms through strong management
Unemployment benefit now a major componetn of social spending
Poland the success story with highest growth (4%) limited inflation (35%) and leveling unemployment at 15%
Forecast inflation for 1993 is 582%
Public expenditure 50-60% of GNP in Central Europe
Some of the fall in GDP is a result of over reporting production in the old regime, now under report to evade tax. The rest do to stopping producing unsalable goods
Unemployment less than anticipated ( only 3.5% in Czech rep). Rises at .5% per month regardless of type of privatisation adopted. - average 15% by end 93.
Except in Pol and Hung , unions very weak thus not much unemployment ( no mass bankruptcies and mass 25%+ unempl)
Stikes mostly in public sector where state employer
Fast systemic change produces less social unrest than slow as in Rom and Ukr
In the initial year of change exports to the West rose 25-45% p111
Predicted lack of entrepreneurs proved unfounded (800,000 new ones in Poland)- shortages of all kinds encouraged this
Be fast and resolute and dont try fine tuning
Arg : fall in GDP less if done gradually evidence to the contrary p112
Softer options actually bring greater social costs ( slower the change the more goes to the corrupt bureacrats)
Quick options havent caused mass bankruptcies
Mainly shops have been privatised- large enterprises still state
High reserves often lead to high levels of intervention
(First deputy minister of Finance - Dabrowski)
Some of the State owned firms have also improved substantially
Unemployment tended to be of the European long term r
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1 D o c u m e n t S u m m a r y I n f o r m a t i o n 8
ather than US short term variety
Capital cities fare better than the hinterlands
Institution building important
Democracy and Liberalism sometimes go in different directions as in 1993 when antiliberal parties obtained a majority in the Duma
Hayek however much one may wish for the speedy return to the free economy....this cannot mean the removal at one stroke... nothing would discredit the the system of free enterprise more than the acute though probably short lived dislocation
Shock: by this is meant the tightening of fiscal and monetary policy as in poland in p237, this caused industrial production to fall 30%. What I would mean by shock therapy would the immediate privatisation of everything
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from ( Economics and Politics of Transition ed Christopher Saunders)
Needs
Abolition of price controls ( gradually on necessities)
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Nm
Privatisation in Eastern Europe
Russia and Eastern Europe
Most command positions are European but half the population is Asian
Czechs once had Standard of living greater than France and Germany ( C19)
Transition to the Market Economy : critical perspectives on the world economy
As of mid 1994 most countries still have more than 50% of GDP in public sector.
In private sector : Czech 65, Russia 50, Slovak 55, Slovenia 30, Ukraine 30, Armenia 40, Albania 50, Belarus 15, Estonia 55, Georgia 20, Ukraine 30
Free distribution of shares does nothing to transform the firms through strong management
Unemployment benefit now a major componetn of social spending
Poland the success story with highest growth (4%) limited inflation (35%) and leveling unemployment at 15%
Forecast inflation for 1993 is 582%
Public expenditure 50-60% of GNP in Central Europe
Some of the fall in GDP is a result of over reporting production in the old regime, now under report to evade tax. The rest do to stopping producing unsalable goods
Unemployment less than anticipated ( only 3.5% in Czech rep). Rises at .5% per month regardless of type of privatisation adopted. - average 15% by end 93.
Except in Pol and Hung , unions very weak thus not much unemployment ( no mass bankruptcies and mass 25%+ unempl)
Stikes mostly in public sector where state employer
Fast systemic change produces less social unrest than slow as in Rom and Ukr
In the initial year of change exports to the West rose 25-45% p111
Predicted lack of entrepreneurs proved unfounded (800,000 new ones in Poland)- shortages of all kinds encouraged this
Be fast and resolute and dont try fine tuning
Arg : fall in GDP less if done gradually evidence to the contrary p112
Softer options actually bring greater social costs ( slower the change the more goes to the corrupt bureacrats)
Quick options havent caused mass bankruptcies
Mainly shops have been privatised- large enterprises still state
High reserves often lead to high levels of intervention
(First deputy minister of Finance - Dabrowski)
Some of the State owned firms have also improved substantially
Unemployment tended to be of the European long term rather than US short term variety
Capital cities fare better than the hinterlands
Institution building important
Democracy and Liberalism sometimes go in different directions as in 1993 when antiliberal parties obtained a majority in the Duma
Hayek however much one may wish for the speedy return to the free economy....this cannot mean the removal at one stroke... nothing would discredit the the system of free enterprise more than the acute though probably short lived dislocation
Shock: by this is meant the tightening of fiscal and monetary policy as in poland in p237, this caused industrial production to fall 30%. What I would mean by shock therapy would the immediate privatisation of everything
/=
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h 4 8 h () 4 8 h () " K @ Normal a " A@ " Default Paragraph Font ion of subsidies on enterprises
Liberalisation of foreign trade
Author argues for replacing turnover taxes with VAT, income tax, etc
Banking system ( again we would be different from Western model here)
Stockmarket ( more of a symbol than practical initially )
Abolition of central planning (author still wants some planning on Western model)
Author also wants social security and collective bargaining set up.
Establishment of property rights ( return of property to former owners ?)
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