Alloa, 2^nd April: With over 32,000 electors individually canvassed in Ochil, the SNP are comfortably in the lead on pledged votes – but uncomfortably aware that almost a quarter of the electorate are still don’t knows or won’t says.

"Once they’re factored in, there’s probably only a whisker in it at the moment," says SNP Election Agent John Adamson. "Our analysis is that the vast majority of the undecided voters are traditional Labour supporters who are scunnered by what Tony Blair has done to their party.

"In former mining villages like Fallin, many have joined us. Others, after a lifetime of Labour loyalty, are still swithering."

For PPC George Reid, the mood is very different from the 1970s when he was MP for Clackmannanshire (which makes up two-thirds of the present constituency). "There is none of the hostility from old Labour families which we experienced then."

Reid points to a whole series of opinion polls showing that for five out of six Labour voters, the SNP is their second choice. "Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair have made Scotland a much more nationalist community." he says. "Here egalitarianism and social justice still matter.

"While New Labour is all blur, we are concentrating on those basic Scottish values. Blair represents Middle England. Major represents Little England. We represent Mainstream Scotland."

The SNP in Ochil has been represented at local government level since 1946, and has always had several hundred members. They have been "enormously encouraged", says President David McCarthy, by the return of Mr Reid – who for the past decade has been Director of Public Affairs with the International Red Cross.

Mr Reid is, as his leaflets put it, "Ochil born, bred, educated and married". He comes from a long line of Clackmannanshire weavers, coopers and colliers, and lives at Bridge of Allan in the constituency. He has been a full-time candidate since the start of 1997, and is backed by an impressive campaign team, which is strong and active in all parts of the constituency.

The team has been canvassing several days a week since the autumn of last year and now has a telephone call centre with four dedicated lines in its Alloa headquarters. All returns are entered on two computers in a data processing room next door. "We are therefore able", says election agent Adamson, "to monitor swings and to target specific groups."

The team is contemptuous of so-called specialists who never leave "the comfort of their armchair and PC screen, and get out on the streets". One academic has stated that Labour has a "notional" majority of over 7000 based on the 1992 results.

"The simple fact," comments David McCarthy, "is that this projection ignores far more recent elections. The European Election would half that majority. And if one includes the three local government elections in Clackmannanshire in 1996 and our parliamentary victory in Kinross the previous year, the SNP is actually ahead.

"There are over 8000 more voters than in Mr O’Neil’s present seat. Very few of them are Labour voters.

"This is a two-horse race between SNP and Labour. In the former Stirling part of the constituency, there is plenty of evidence that Tories and Liberals are switching to George Reid. And, of course, Kinross already has an SNP MP."

A key factor in determining how former Labour supporters will actually vote, says George Reid, is the cut in expenditure and services brought in by Labour-controlled Clackmannanshire council on 6 March.

"Gordon Brown – Culpability Brown – has made it plain that a new Labour government will continue the Tory cuts over two years," said Mr Reid. "This has completely destroyed the morale of his party in Scotland.

"Our key message is that prosperity and social justice can only be secured by Independence in Europe."